Research Report · Inaugural 2026 Edition · Updated 2026-04-22
State of HVAC 2026
A first-of-its-kind snapshot of the US residential HVAC contractor market — built on our live dataset of licensed providers across every state with meaningful coverage. This report tracks contractor density, license-verification rates, install-cost distribution, and which states offer the strongest heat-pump rebate stacks.
On this page
Headline numbers
As of 2026-04-22, pulled directly from the database powering this site. Every stat has a stable anchor ID — use them to deep-link or cite specific figures.
- 18,592Licensed HVAC companies tracked
- 50States with meaningful coverage
- 2,517Cities with HQ’d contractor rows
- 1,000Counties registered in the dataset
- 32.8%Companies with a verified state contractor license (6,097 of 18,592)
Note: 2026 is the inaugural year of this report. We’ll publish year-over-year deltas starting in 2027 once we have a second snapshot.
License-verified coverage by state
Not all states make licensing verification easy. Oregon (CCB), Washington (L&I), Texas (TDLR), and Florida (DBPR) publish structured license registries that we scrape directly. States without a public registry rely on HVAC-company self-reporting, which caps our verification rate.
Top 5 verified: the states leading on license transparency
| State | Companies | Verified % | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida (FL) | 2,314 | 55.3% | |
| California (CA) | 2,874 | 45.0% | |
| North Carolina (NC) | 708 | 37.9% | |
| Texas (TX) | 2,282 | 37.8% | |
| Oregon (OR) | 348 | 36.2% |
Bottom 5 verified: states with the most work to do
| State | Companies | Verified % | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois (IL) | 1,304 | 0.0% | |
| New York (NY) | 1,154 | 0.0% | |
| Pennsylvania (PA) | 782 | 0.0% | |
| Georgia (GA) | 741 | 0.0% | |
| Michigan (MI) | 737 | 0.0% |
Full state coverage (sorted by contractor count)
Top 10 cities by provider density
The metros with the deepest licensed-contractor bench. Each links to the city’s ranked shortlist — 90% of homeowners find a qualified pro inside this list.
| Rank | City | Companies | Density |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Vancouver, WA | 71 | |
| #2 | Portland, OR | 40 | |
| #3 | Spokane, WA | 39 | |
| #4 | Eugene, OR | 34 | |
| #5 | Bend, OR | 28 | |
| #6 | Bellingham, WA | 25 | |
| #7 | Tacoma, WA | 23 | |
| #8 | Yakima, WA | 23 | |
| #9 | El Paso, TX | 22 | |
| #10 | Mckinney, TX | 22 |
Install cost distribution
Median install ranges across 4268 city-level benchmarks. Bucketed by the midpoint of the low/high range — shows where the bulk of the market actually prices HVAC replacements.
- Median low$4,446
- Median midpoint$8,398
- Median high$12,500
Distribution by bucket
| Bucket | Cities | Share | Visual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $5k | 0 | 0.0% | |
| $5k–$8k | 1,770 | 41.5% | |
| $8k–$12k | 2,463 | 57.7% | |
| $12k+ | 35 | 0.8% |
Cheapest markets
- Centralia, WA — $3,150–$9,375
- Chehalis, WA — $3,150–$9,375
- Goldendale, WA — $3,150–$9,375
- Port Angeles, WA — $3,150–$9,375
- Aberdeen, WA — $3,150–$9,375
Priciest markets
- Honolulu, HI — $7,047–$19,575
- Los Angeles, CA — $6,561–$18,225
- San Diego, CA — $6,561–$18,225
- San Jose, CA — $6,561–$18,225
- San Francisco, CA — $6,561–$18,225
States with the strongest heat-pump rebate stacks
Max combined rebate (top-2 active heat-pump or ductless programs) across utilities serving each state. Federal 25C tax credit (up to $2,000) stacks on top of these figures — not included in the ranking.
| Rank | State | Max stacked rebate | Top utility program | Visual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Maine (ME) | $16,000 | CMP Heat Pump Program (via Efficiency Maine)Central Maine Power (CMP) | |
| #2 | Connecticut (CT) | $15,000 | UI Heat Pump Rebate (EnergizeCT)United Illuminating (UI) | |
| #3 | Massachusetts (MA) | $12,000 | Mass Save Whole-Home Heat Pump RebateMass Save (Statewide Collaborative) | |
| #4 | New Hampshire (NH) | $12,000 | Unitil NH Heat Pump Rebate (NHSaves)Unitil New Hampshire | |
| #5 | Alaska (AK) | $11,500 | AHFC Home Energy Rebate Program — Heat PumpAlaska Housing Finance Corporation (AHFC) | |
| #6 | Oregon (OR) | $10,000 | ETO Savings Within Reach (income-qualified)Energy Trust of Oregon | |
| #7 | New Jersey (NJ) | $10,000 | NJ Clean Energy — Whole-Home Heat Pump RebateNJ Clean Energy Program (Statewide) | |
| #8 | Washington (WA) | $9,000 | Tacoma Power Heat Pump Conversion RebateTacoma Power | |
| #9 | New York (NY) | $9,000 | ConEd + NYS Clean Heat Air Source Heat Pump RebateCon Edison (ConEd) | |
| #10 | Vermont (VT) | $8,400 | Efficiency Vermont Cold Climate Heat Pump RebateEfficiency Vermont (Statewide) |
Methodology + data sources
This report is generated directly from the database powering every page on this site. All figures are computed with paginated Supabase queries (no sampling), then aggregated in-process. The exact pipeline:
- Companies —
public.companies, filtered to the HVAC trade, excluding scrape-placeholder rows (website_url ilike %example.com%). Joined tolocationsvia the canonical HQ FK. - License verification —
public.company_details. A company is counted as verified when it has a non-emptylicense_numberand alicense_statusthat is null, empty, “active”, or “certified”. License numbers come from state registry ingestion scripts (CCB, L&I, TDLR, DBPR). - Cost benchmarks —
public.cost_benchmarks, one row per (trade, city) pair. Each city page on the site renders from the same row. - Heat-pump rebates —
public.utility_rebate_programsjoined topublic.city_utility_map→public.locations. We take the top-2 active heat-pump / ductless programs serving each state. - Counts — every query uses the paginated
.range()pattern to avoid the 1,000-row PostgREST silent truncation. No sampling.
Licensing registry sources per state
- Florida (FL) — Florida Department of Business & Professional Regulation (DBPR)
- Oregon (OR) — Oregon Construction Contractors Board (CCB)
- Texas (TX) — Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation (TDLR)
- Washington (WA) — Washington Department of Labor & Industries (L&I)
Other states rely on contractor self-reporting plus ancillary public records. We expand this list as we add deeper state-specific ingestion pipelines.
Utility rebate sources per state
- Alabama (AL) — Alabama Power, Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) — Alabama
- Alaska (AK) — Alaska Housing Finance Corporation (AHFC), Golden Valley Electric Association (GVEA)
- Arizona (AZ) — Arizona Public Service (APS), Salt River Project (SRP), Tucson Electric Power (TEP)
- Arkansas (AR) — Entergy Arkansas, Southwestern Electric Power Company (SWEPCO)
- California (CA) — Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E), Southern California Edison (SCE)
- Colorado (CO) — Black Hills Energy Colorado, Colorado Springs Utilities, Xcel Energy Colorado
- Connecticut (CT) — Eversource Energy Connecticut, United Illuminating (UI)
- Delaware (DE) — Delmarva Power (Delaware)
- Florida (FL) — Duke Energy Florida, Florida Power & Light (FPL), Tampa Electric (TECO)
- Georgia (GA) — Atlanta Gas Light, Georgia EMCs (Electric Membership Corporations), Georgia Power
- Hawaii (HI) — Hawaiian Electric (HECO)
- Idaho (ID) — Idaho Power, Rocky Mountain Power Idaho
- Illinois (IL) — Ameren Illinois, ComEd (Commonwealth Edison), Nicor Gas, Peoples Gas (Chicago)
- Indiana (IN) — AEP Indiana Michigan Power, Duke Energy Indiana, NIPSCO (Northern Indiana Public Service)
- Iowa (IA) — Alliant Energy Iowa (Interstate Power and Light), MidAmerican Energy
- Kansas (KS) — Evergy Kansas
- Kentucky (KY) — Duke Energy Kentucky, LG&E and KU (Louisville Gas & Electric / Kentucky Utilities)
- Louisiana (LA) — CLECO Power, Entergy Louisiana
- Maine (ME) — Central Maine Power (CMP), Efficiency Maine (Statewide)
- Maryland (MD) — BGE (Baltimore Gas and Electric), Pepco Maryland
- Massachusetts (MA) — Mass Save (Statewide Collaborative)
- Michigan (MI) — Consumers Energy, DTE Energy
- Minnesota (MN) — CenterPoint Energy Minnesota, Minnesota Power, Xcel Energy Minnesota
- Mississippi (MS) — Entergy Mississippi, Mississippi Power
- Missouri (MO) — Ameren Missouri, Evergy Missouri, Spire Missouri
- Montana (MT) — NorthWestern Energy Montana
- Nebraska (NE) — Nebraska Public Power District (NPPD), OPPD (Omaha Public Power District)
- Nevada (NV) — NV Energy
- New Hampshire (NH) — Eversource New Hampshire, Unitil New Hampshire
- New Jersey (NJ) — NJ Clean Energy Program (Statewide), PSE&G (Public Service Electric and Gas)
- New Mexico (NM) — El Paso Electric (NM), PNM (Public Service Company of New Mexico)
- New York (NY) — Con Edison (ConEd), NYSEG (New York State Electric & Gas), National Grid (NY)
- North Carolina (NC) — Dominion Energy North Carolina, Duke Energy Carolinas / Duke Energy Progress (NC), Piedmont Natural Gas
- North Dakota (ND) — MDU Resources (Montana-Dakota Utilities), Xcel Energy North Dakota
- Ohio (OH) — AEP Ohio, Duke Energy Ohio, FirstEnergy Ohio (Ohio Edison / Illuminating / Toledo Edison)
- Oklahoma (OK) — OG&E (Oklahoma Gas and Electric), Public Service Company of Oklahoma (PSO)
- Oregon (OR) — Central Electric Cooperative, Energy Trust of Oregon, Eugene Water & Electric Board, NW Natural
- Pennsylvania (PA) — Duquesne Light Company, PECO Energy, PPL Electric Utilities
- Rhode Island (RI) — Rhode Island Energy
- South Carolina (SC) — Duke Energy Progress / Carolinas (SC), Santee Cooper
- South Dakota (SD) — Black Hills Energy South Dakota, Xcel Energy South Dakota
- Tennessee (TN) — Memphis Light, Gas and Water (MLGW), TVA EnergyRight (Tennessee)
- Texas (TX) — Austin Energy, CPS Energy (San Antonio), CenterPoint Energy (Texas), Oncor Electric Delivery
- Utah (UT) — Dominion Energy Utah, Rocky Mountain Power Utah
- Vermont (VT) — Burlington Electric Department, Efficiency Vermont (Statewide), Green Mountain Power
- Virginia (VA) — Appalachian Power (VA), Dominion Energy Virginia
- Washington (WA) — Avista Utilities, Clark Public Utilities, Puget Sound Energy, Snohomish County PUD, Tacoma Power
- West Virginia (WV) — Appalachian Power (WV), Mon Power
- Wisconsin (WI) — Alliant Energy Wisconsin (WPL), Focus on Energy (Statewide), We Energies
- Wyoming (WY) — Black Hills Energy Wyoming, Rocky Mountain Power Wyoming
Citing this report
This report is free to cite under CC BY 4.0. Attribution to Compare HVAC Pro with a link back to this page or the JSON endpoint is all we ask.
Suggested citation (AP-style)
Compare HVAC Pro Editorial, “State of HVAC 2026: National Data,” published 2026-04-22. https://comparehvacpro.com/reports/state-of-hvac-2026. Dataset version 2026.1.Direct deep-links for common stats
- Total contractors tracked:
https://comparehvacpro.com/reports/state-of-hvac-2026#stat-total-companies - License-verified rate:
https://comparehvacpro.com/reports/state-of-hvac-2026#stat-license-verified - States leading on transparency:
https://comparehvacpro.com/reports/state-of-hvac-2026#stat-strongest-states - Top 10 cities by provider density:
https://comparehvacpro.com/reports/state-of-hvac-2026#stat-top-cities-table - Install cost distribution:
https://comparehvacpro.com/reports/state-of-hvac-2026#stat-price-buckets - Strongest rebate stacks:
https://comparehvacpro.com/reports/state-of-hvac-2026#stat-rebate-table - JSON download:
https://comparehvacpro.com/api/reports/state-of-hvac-2026.json
For press inquiries or custom data cuts, email editorial@comparehvacpro.com.
Research the contractors behind the data.
Every number in this report comes from a searchable dataset. Drop your ZIP to see the licensed HVAC pros serving your block.